Gun buyers submitted slightly fewer background check requests last month than a year ago, but the quarterly trend stayed solidly positive and NFA filings continued their historic run, according to data released this week by the National Shooting Sports Foundation. The NSSF's adjusted September 2026 NICS figure came in at 1,152,077, a 2.3% decline from the September 2025 adjusted total of 1,179,424 — a modest pullback that the broader quarterly numbers more than offset.

Third-quarter 2026 NSSF-adjusted background checks totaled 3,329,270, up 2.5% from Q3 2025's figure of 3,249,497, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth for the industry. The NSSF-adjusted methodology strips out permit rechecks and other non-transfer checks from the FBI's raw totals, making it the industry's standard proxy for actual retail unit demand. A single-month softness against a particularly strong September 2025 is not unusual; the seven-quarter streak suggests the underlying trend remains intact.

The standout number in September was NFA. Background checks for National Firearms Act-regulated items hit 149,614 for the month, a 129.2% increase over the 65,273 NFA checks recorded in September 2025. The surge has been building since a federal court in the Northern District of Texas issued a permanent injunction in August in Silencer Shop Foundation v. ATF, eliminating registration and approval requirements for suppressors, short-barreled rifles, and related items for covered buyers — and gaining further momentum when the Trump administration decided not to appeal. Suppressor makers including SilencerCo, Dead Air, HUXWRX, Banish, and others have reported sharply elevated order volumes, and the NICS data backs that up month after month.

The industry now enters its strongest seasonal period. Background checks typically peak from October through December as deer season opens and holiday purchases drive retail traffic. If the suppressor demand holds, the fourth quarter NFA totals could push the 2026 full-year NFA check count to levels with no historical precedent.

NSSF will release October 2026 adjusted NICS data in early November. Observers will be watching whether the NFA category holds above 130,000 monthly checks for a third consecutive month, or whether it begins to normalize as the initial wave of buyers who were waiting on the legal landscape works through the system.